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Japanese Yen Crosses Stall before US Data

The Japanese economic calendar has been devoid of any significant data over the past 24 hours and this will remain the case for the next 24 hours.

Many of the Yen crosses have recovered significantly over the past week, but further strength will now be contingent upon Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is in no rush to find a new Bank of Japan Governor. Although Fukuda indicate that a candidate will be announced shortly, the Japanese needs to find someone who is agreeable to both parties.

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Canadian Dollar Falls as Gold Crushed

via Canadian Economic Press

11:25 04/01 (CEP News) Montreal – A 4% drop in gold futures and broad-based U.S. dollar rally sparked a selloff in the Canadian dollar on Tuesday. Despite the weakness against the USD, the loonie is higher on other major crosses.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.42 cents to 0.9703 against the USD (1.0304 USD/CAD). Against the euro, the loonie was up 0.42 cents to 0.6220 (1.6077 CAD/EUR). The Canadian dollar was up 1.65 to 98.90 against the yen.

The Canadian dollar was able to hold throughout the morning as commodity prices tumbled and shorts were covered, but it finally broke just after 10 a.m. EDT. CBOT gold is down $36.50 to $885.30 an ounce; Nymex crude is down $1.07 to $100.52 a barrel and copper is down $9.20 to $373.90 a pound.

Technical analysts are closely watching the Canadian dollar’s 4-month low of 0.9636 (1.0378 USD/CAD) for signs of protracted Canadian dollar weakness.

“Until we see a close above 1.0350 (USD/CAD) we are hesitant to believe that the four month range will be broken,” wrote currency strategists at ScotiaCapital in a note to clients. “Accordingly, we continue to view USD/CAD as a range trade, with clear risk for upside.”

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Can Dollar Hold Ground?

Dollar selling continued this week, but the pair had a hard time clearing the 1.5850 resistance level on the way to challenging the 1.5900 all time highs. Perhaps the bears are starting to run out of steam. Certainly the economic data gave them little to chew on this week. Overall the results were mixed as housing data and personal income showed some mild improvement but Durable Goods once again missed to the downside. At best one could say that the US fundamentals have not become dramatically worse and that was enough to keep dollar bears at bay.

The pair remains at standstill as traders look for new themes to develop. Last week we noted that “With EURUSD having run out of stream at 1.5900 early last week, near term momentum has shifted to dollar bulls. They will however, need further negative surprises out of the Eurozone in order push the pair lower. Otherwise, assuming there are no additional exogenous shocks, the currency market may simply meander aimlessly for the rest of the week in very narrow trading range.”

The range for the time being appears to be contained within 1.5600-1.5850 zone. However, next week the veneer of calm may be shattered by the event risk to come. The US calendar carries important releases nearly every day of the week with both ISM Manufacturing and Services possibly foreshadowing the state of the US labor market to be revealed in Friday’s NFPs. If data confirms the doomsayers worst predictions showing continuing contraction in US labor demand, the dollar may not be able to hold its ground and 1.6000 could give way. On the other hand if the numbers do not reveal a huge decline of –100k or more, the greenback may inch away from precipice and commence a much needed relief rally.

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What is U.S. Dollar Index?

Source: FXStreet

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®) is an index of the of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX® is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s compared to the Euro (EUR), Japenese yen (JPY), Pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF) relative to March 1973. The USDX® measures the dollar’s general value relative to a base of 100.00. For example, a quote of 105.50 means that the dollar’s value has risen 5.5 percent since this base period. March 1973 was chosen as a base period because it represents a significant milestone in foreign exchange history when the world’s major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other. This agreement was reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, DC and was a victory for free market theorists. The Smithsonian agreement replaced the unsuccessful fixed rate regime established approximately 25 years earlier at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

The current level of the USDX® reflects the average value of the dollar relative to this 1973 base period. In March 1973, the value of the dollar index was 100.00. Since that time, the U.S. Dollar Index has traded as high as the mid-160’s and it recently set a new low of 71.99 on March 13, 2008. The index is updated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Just as the Dow Jones Industrial Average provides a general indication of the value of the U.S. stock market, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®) provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. Dollar. It is also important to note that the currencies and weights used in the calculation of the USDX® are the same as those used in the Federal Reserve Boards trade-weighted U. S. Dollar Index.

Similar to the stock market, investors can purchase the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®\) through IntercontinentalExchange ® (ICE), which is considered a competing trading exchange to the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). ICE operates global commodity and financial products marketplaces and is probably considered the world’s leading electronic platform for energy markets and soft commodity exchange. USDX® futures contracts trade electronically on the ICE electronic trading platform as well as an open outcry platform on ICE’s Future U.S.’s New York and Dublin trading floors.

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Honda of Mizuho Sees Dollar `Bounce’ in Next Six Months

Hidetoshi Honda, a currency strategist at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., talks with Bloomberg’s John Dawson and Naga Munchetty in London about the outlook for the U.S. dollar, Japan’s economy and his strategy for the rand and yen. The dollar has fallen 7.6 percent against the euro this year, heading for its sixth straight quarterly loss and the biggest since 2004 as the Fed slashed interest rates by 3 percentage points since September to 2.25 percent. (Source: Bloomberg)

Tags: Bloomberg, dollar, Hidetoshi Honda, John Dawson, Mizuho Corporate, Naga Munchetty

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Gold below 1-week high, focus on dollar and oil

via ninemsn

SINGAPORE, March 28 (Reuters) - Gold dipped on Friday after the dollar rose on a government report showing the U.S. economy grew in line with market expectations in the fourth quarter, but surging oil could offer support.

— Gold eased to $948.80/949.60 an ounce from $951.80/952.60 an ounce late in New York. Gold jumped to a 1-week high at $954.50 an ounce on Thursday before a rebounding dollar erased some of the gains.

– Gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange added $0.8 an ounce to $949.6 an ounce and off last week’s record of $1,033.90.

– The dollar rose on Thursday, snapping a two-day losing streak, on views liquidity conditions for banks were not as dire as initially thought after a tepid Federal Reserve auction to swap poor-performing investments. [ID:nN27399275]

– Oil rose sharply on Thursday after a bomb attack on a major Iraqi crude pipeline slashed exports from the country’s southern oil port for the first time in years. [ID:nSYD150225]

– Spot platinum rose to $2,025/2,035 an ounce from $2,023/2,033 an ounce.

– The most active Tokyo platinum futures <0#JPL:> rose 69 yen per gram to 6,354 yen to track a firm cash market.

– Silver eased to $18.48/18.53 an ounce from $18.50/18.55 an ounce.

– Spot palladium rose to $446/451 an ounce from $445/450 an ounce in New York. Precious metals prices at 0021 GMT Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Turnover Spot Gold 948.80 1.40 +0.15 13.94 Spot Silver 18.48 0.07 +0.38 25.12 Spot Platinum 2025.00 2.00 +0.10 33.22 Spot Palladium 446.00 1.00 +0.22 21.20 TOCOM Gold 3060.00 2.00 +0.07 0.00 2662 TOCOM Platinum 6362.00 77.00 +1.23 19.16 2590 TOCOM Silver 595.70 8.80 +1.50 10.11 121 TOCOM Palladium 1476.00 -8.00 -0.54 9.25 317 Euro/Dollar 1.5800 Dollar/Yen 99.49 TOCOM prices in yen per gram, except TOCOM silver which is priced in yen per 10 grams. Spot prices in $ per ounce. (Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Michael Urquhart)

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Closing Market Update: Canadian Stocks Outperform, Euro Posts Solid Gains

via Canadian Economic Press

16:40 03/25 (CEP News) Montreal – Canadian government bonds underperformed Treasuries after economic data painted a divergent picture of North America’s two largest economies. Statistics Canada reported an unexpected surge in retail sales while U.S. consumer confidence tumbled and home prices plummeted.

Canadian retail sales excluding autos were expected to increase 0.5% in January but climbed 1.3% after the Federal government trimmed a percentage point from the goods and services tax. Headline sales were expected at 1.4% but a spike in auto sales boosted the figure 1.5%.

In the United States, economists were expecting consumer confidence at a 73.5 but it declined to a four-year low of 64.5. Worse yet, consumer expectations for the next six months fell to 47.9 – the lowest level since December 1973.

Housing news continued to drive a bid in Treasuries. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell 10.7% year-over-year against expectations of a 10.5% decline.

Yields on two-year Canadian government bonds were down 1.5 bps to 2.72%, five-year yields down 4.0 bps to 3.01%, 10-year yields down 3.6 bps to 3.49% and 30-year yields down 2.1 bps to 3.95%.

In the U.S., Treasury volumes were sub-par with two-year yields down 2.5 bps to 1.78%, five-year yields down 0.7 bps to 2.61%, 10-year yields down 4.9 bps to 3.51% and 30-year yields down 6.1 bps to 4.30%. The Eurodollar June 08 contract was up 2.0 ticks to 97.67. The 10/2 year spread flattened 1.9 bps to 172.96.

“It’s kind of a tale of two cities. Canada appears to be doing okay while the United States is facing growing problems,” said Levente Mady, a bond strategist at MF Global Canada.

Fed fund futures traders were increasing their bets on Federal Reserve easing after paring back expectations dramatically on Monday.

Fed fund futures are pricing in a 13.3% that rates will fall to 1.50% in August, up from 7.6% a day earlier but down from 39.8% a week ago.

Mady sees rates falling even lower. “The Fed has no choice but to continue to ease rates. Chances are pretty good that Fed funds will fall below 1%,” he said.

In Canada, the September BAX contract was up for the first time in five sessions. It ended the session up 0.05 to 97.11.

“The Bank of Canada made it pretty clear they’re in an easing mode. The BOC has been slower on the take than the Fed but the trend is for yields to fall,” Mady said.

Like the fixed income market, North American bourses were also vastly divergent. Toronto’s S&P TSX composite index closed up 301.90 points to 13321.62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 16.04 points to 12532.60, the S&P 500 up 3.11 points to 1352.99 and the NASDAQ up 14.30 points to 2341.05.

In Europe, stock markets closed in positive territory with the Eurostoxx up 94.83 points to 3036.15, the UK FTSE 100 up 193.90 points to 5689.10 and the German DAX up 204.72 points to 6524.71.

In currency markets, the Canadian dollar hasn’t been able to attract a bid as European currencies continue to beat up the U.S. and Canadian dollars.

The Canadian dollar was unchanged 0.9830 against the USD (1.0173 USD/CAD) and down 0.80 cents to 1.5882 against the euro.

The U.S. dollar was down 0.57 to 100.17 against the yen and the euro up 1.90 cents, to 1.56125 against the US dollar. The pound sterling was up 1.60 cents to 2.0014 USD and the Australian dollar was higher by 1.10 cents to 0.9165 USD. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.731 points to 72.218.

Overnight markets will be focused on Europe where ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will address European Parliament and the Ifo sentiment survey will be released.

There will be no major Canadian data releases on Thursday but U.S. market watchers will have plenty to digest with the release of durable goods orders, new home sales and petroleum inventories. Hawkish Federal Reserve voter Richard Fisher will also speak about the Fed.

Ken Mayland, chief economist from ClearView Economics, said the slide in U.S. home construction could be nearing a bottom.

“We are already close to the point where housing starts typically bottom,” Mayland said. “If that is the case, then most of the decline is already behind us. And that means there is not much in the way of a 2008 decline that can contribute to a recession.”

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LGT’s Grosehodge Sees Euro Extending Gains Against Pound

The dollar fell the most against the euro in two weeks on speculation industry reports will show U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a five-year low and the housing slump deepened.

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Markets Feeling Better After J.P. Morgan’s Bear Hug.

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What to Expect for the US Dollar

via DailyFX

Markets around the globe were closed for Good Friday which led to zero volatility in currencies. After a week of wild swings, the quiet trading gives everyone an opportunity to think about what could impact the US dollar in the week ahead. Banks have not been shy about tapping into the Fed’s new liquidity provisions and the recent move in the stock market suggests that the central bank’s efforts have helped to temporarily ease the latest uncertainty in the financial markets. The demise of Bear Stearns could have led to a huge collapse in the stock market, but actions by the Fed have helped stocks end the week higher than its pre-Bear Stearns levels. The biggest problem in the financial markets right now is the fear of counterparty risk. By allowing investment banks to post a broader range of collateral for a longer period of time, the Federal Reserve has in effect, swapped their safe Treasury bonds for dodgier assets such as mortgage backed securities. Unfortunately this will only be a temporary solution to a serious problem which is why we haven’t seen the end of dollar weakness. Two weeks from now, we have non-farm payrolls due for release and the vulnerability of the labor market will come back to the forefront. Goldman Sachs just joined Citigroup in announcing a new round of layoffs. However before those numbers are released, we do have a week of only Tier 2 US economic data, or data that should not be particularly market moving. The most important releases are existing and new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence, the final Q4 GDP numbers, personal income and personal spending. Everyone expects the housing market to remain weak, but consumer confidence could surprise to the upside since the weekly ABC numbers have shown signs of stability. The GDP numbers are the final figures for the fourth quarter, which means that they should not be particularly market moving. Therefore even though the US dollar could resume its slide relatively soon, the lack of any Tier 1 economic data such as non-farm payrolls, inflation reports or retail sales does not ensure that this will happen in the coming week. In the meantime, keep an eye on the equity and bond markets. If they continue to stabilize, the dollar could extend its rebound, but if volatility grapples the market once again, the dollar could quickly resume its slide.

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