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Forex Trading Directory, Forex Market, Foreign Exchange

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Paulson Repeats Views on U.S. Economy in Speech on Developing Nations

April 13, 2008 – 8:50 pm

via Action Forex

(CEP News) - Despite the slowdown in the U.S. and other industrialized nations, the outlook for the developing world remains optimistic, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Sunday.Paulson was speaking to the Development Committee, a body that focuses on the needs of poorer countries. At the beginning of his speech, Paulson repeated prior statements on the U.S. economy - saying that while the short-term outlook is trying, the long-term outlook is good.

“While the long-run economic fundamentals remain sound, the U.S. economy faces challenges. The housing correction, credit market turmoil and high oil prices are all weighing on growth and short-term risks are to the downside,” he said.

Despite the risk stemming from the world’s richest economy and an anticipated slowdown in global growth, poorer countries continue to develop, Paulson said.

“It is important to remember that developing countries are on track to record their sixth consecutive year of average GDP growth in excess of 6%, an accomplishment unparalleled in recent history,” Paulson said.

“Stronger macroeconomic policies, buoyant external demand, low real interest rates, and increased access to private capital markets - over $600 billion in net private inflows in 2007 - are major factors for strong growth performance.”

Paulson also said high commodity prices have improved developing countries’ terms of trade.

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Fed’s TSLF Auction Fails to Draw $50 Billion in Bids (Update)

April 10, 2008 – 8:35 pm

(CEP News) - The Federal Reserve received only $33.95 billion for a $50 billion auction through the term securities lending facility, officials announced Thursday.The absence of participants resulted in a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.68. This is much lower than the previous bid-to-cover ratios of 1.15 and 1.88 and could mean funding pressures have abated. The stop-out rate was 25 basis points - the minimum allowed rate.

“The bid-to-cover ratio is astonishingly low. You have to interpret it as positive but I’m still seeing trouble in other areas,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist and fixed income strategist at TD Securities.

Some sources say that because the TSFL is still new, some firms are still not able to participate because of operational and accounting changes, but Lascelles said that’s unlikely.

“I have a hard time believing that if they need funding they aren’t participating. If they need it, they’re going to make it work one way or another,” he said.

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The Day Ahead Japan & Australia: Japan Domestic CGPI

April 10, 2008 – 8:34 pm

via Action Forex

(CEP News) - On Thursday night, Asian markets will receive Japan Domestic CGPI for March.Economists expect Japan’s domestic CGPI to rise 0.3% following February’s rise of 0.4%. Annualized, the consensus is for a rise of 3.5% following February’s rise of 3.4%.

Although no economic data is expected for Australia, markets will be interested to see what happens when G7 finance ministers and central bankers attend a meeting in Washington, D.C.

All times in EDT.

19:50 JN Domestic CGPI (M/M) March Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.4%

19:50 JN Domestic CGPI (Y/Y) March Exp: +3.5% Prior: +3.4%

Friday

14:00 US G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meet in Washington D.C.

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U.S. Labor Secretary Chao Says U.S. Not Yet in Recession

April 6, 2008 – 8:23 pm

(CEP News) – Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg News, U.S. Labour Secretary Elaine L. Chao said she did not think the U.S. economy was in recession yet.She said Friday morning’s decline in nonfarm payrolls, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was due partly to an autoworkers strike at General Motors, and said Thursday’s jobless claims data of 407k was not that bad.

She also said the unemployment rate remained relatively good, and that she was optimistic about the government’s fiscal stimulus package, which is expected to add 600,000 jobs to the economy, according to members of the Treasury Department.

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Mexico peso at 2-year high after U.S. jobs data

April 3, 2008 – 8:43 pm

via Reuters

MEXICO CITY, April 3 (Reuters) - Mexico’s peso closed at a two-year high on Thursday after poor U.S. job market data reinforced views the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates.

The peso <MXN=> <MEX01> firmed 0.16 percent to 10.5595 per dollar at the central bank close, while the benchmark IPC stock index <.MXX> rose 0.70 percent at 31,689.61 points.

The peso is at its strongest level since March 2006 as investors favor the relatively high yields on local debt compared with U.S. Treasuries.

U.S. government data showed the number of U.S. workers applying for unemployment benefits last week soared to the highest level since September 2005.

“If you have weak data like this in the United States, it motivates expectations of a wider rate spread,” said David Franco, a fixed-income analyst at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico City.

That makes assets denominated in Mexican pesos more attractive to yield-hungry investors. The spread between Mexico’s key rate and the Fed’s target rate stands at 525 basis points, its widest since mid-2005.

In debt trading, the price of the benchmark 10-year government peso bond <MX10YT=RR> rose 0.207 points to bid at 101.844, pushing its yield down 3 basis points to 7.48 percent.

Mexican stocks initially fell on the jobs data, but recovered on a published report that the chief executive of Merrill Lynch & Co Inc <MER.N> said the bank is not in need of more capital. That boosted hopes the U.S. credit crisis is easing.

Traders said the rally also was fueled by the nation’s pension funds, which are accommodating their portfolios after new rules kicked in this week allowing managers to increase the amount of risky assets they hold.

“The funds took advantage of the correction in the morning to get into stocks,” said Manuel Lasa, head of trading at Interacciones brokerage.

Shares of America Movil <AMXL.MX>, Latin America’s biggest mobile phone provider, gained 2.18 percent to 35.09 pesos. Its New York-traded shares <AMX.N> rose 2.3 percent to $66.75.

Riding on gains for copper, miner Grupo Mexico <GMEXICOB.MX>, one of the world’s biggest producers of the red metal, added 3.01 percent to 73.88 pesos.

Financial group Inbursa <GFINBURO.MX> shared the optimism seen on other bank stocks, adding 2.5 percent to 31.51 pesos. (Reporting by Michael O’Boyle; editing by Leslie Adler)

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Japanese Yen Crosses Stall before US Data

April 3, 2008 – 8:13 pm

The Japanese economic calendar has been devoid of any significant data over the past 24 hours and this will remain the case for the next 24 hours.

Many of the Yen crosses have recovered significantly over the past week, but further strength will now be contingent upon Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is in no rush to find a new Bank of Japan Governor. Although Fukuda indicate that a candidate will be announced shortly, the Japanese needs to find someone who is agreeable to both parties.

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Canadian Dollar Falls as Gold Crushed

April 1, 2008 – 8:25 pm

via Canadian Economic Press

11:25 04/01 (CEP News) Montreal – A 4% drop in gold futures and broad-based U.S. dollar rally sparked a selloff in the Canadian dollar on Tuesday. Despite the weakness against the USD, the loonie is higher on other major crosses.

The Canadian dollar was down 0.42 cents to 0.9703 against the USD (1.0304 USD/CAD). Against the euro, the loonie was up 0.42 cents to 0.6220 (1.6077 CAD/EUR). The Canadian dollar was up 1.65 to 98.90 against the yen.

The Canadian dollar was able to hold throughout the morning as commodity prices tumbled and shorts were covered, but it finally broke just after 10 a.m. EDT. CBOT gold is down $36.50 to $885.30 an ounce; Nymex crude is down $1.07 to $100.52 a barrel and copper is down $9.20 to $373.90 a pound.

Technical analysts are closely watching the Canadian dollar’s 4-month low of 0.9636 (1.0378 USD/CAD) for signs of protracted Canadian dollar weakness.

“Until we see a close above 1.0350 (USD/CAD) we are hesitant to believe that the four month range will be broken,” wrote currency strategists at ScotiaCapital in a note to clients. “Accordingly, we continue to view USD/CAD as a range trade, with clear risk for upside.”

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Can Dollar Hold Ground?

March 30, 2008 – 8:37 pm

Dollar selling continued this week, but the pair had a hard time clearing the 1.5850 resistance level on the way to challenging the 1.5900 all time highs. Perhaps the bears are starting to run out of steam. Certainly the economic data gave them little to chew on this week. Overall the results were mixed as housing data and personal income showed some mild improvement but Durable Goods once again missed to the downside. At best one could say that the US fundamentals have not become dramatically worse and that was enough to keep dollar bears at bay.

The pair remains at standstill as traders look for new themes to develop. Last week we noted that “With EURUSD having run out of stream at 1.5900 early last week, near term momentum has shifted to dollar bulls. They will however, need further negative surprises out of the Eurozone in order push the pair lower. Otherwise, assuming there are no additional exogenous shocks, the currency market may simply meander aimlessly for the rest of the week in very narrow trading range.”

The range for the time being appears to be contained within 1.5600-1.5850 zone. However, next week the veneer of calm may be shattered by the event risk to come. The US calendar carries important releases nearly every day of the week with both ISM Manufacturing and Services possibly foreshadowing the state of the US labor market to be revealed in Friday’s NFPs. If data confirms the doomsayers worst predictions showing continuing contraction in US labor demand, the dollar may not be able to hold its ground and 1.6000 could give way. On the other hand if the numbers do not reveal a huge decline of –100k or more, the greenback may inch away from precipice and commence a much needed relief rally.

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What is U.S. Dollar Index?

March 29, 2008 – 7:27 am

Source: FXStreet

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®) is an index of the of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX® is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s compared to the Euro (EUR), Japenese yen (JPY), Pound sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF) relative to March 1973. The USDX® measures the dollar’s general value relative to a base of 100.00. For example, a quote of 105.50 means that the dollar’s value has risen 5.5 percent since this base period. March 1973 was chosen as a base period because it represents a significant milestone in foreign exchange history when the world’s major trading nations allowed their currencies to float freely against each other. This agreement was reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, DC and was a victory for free market theorists. The Smithsonian agreement replaced the unsuccessful fixed rate regime established approximately 25 years earlier at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

The current level of the USDX® reflects the average value of the dollar relative to this 1973 base period. In March 1973, the value of the dollar index was 100.00. Since that time, the U.S. Dollar Index has traded as high as the mid-160’s and it recently set a new low of 71.99 on March 13, 2008. The index is updated 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Just as the Dow Jones Industrial Average provides a general indication of the value of the U.S. stock market, the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®) provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. Dollar. It is also important to note that the currencies and weights used in the calculation of the USDX® are the same as those used in the Federal Reserve Boards trade-weighted U. S. Dollar Index.

Similar to the stock market, investors can purchase the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX®\) through IntercontinentalExchange ® (ICE), which is considered a competing trading exchange to the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). ICE operates global commodity and financial products marketplaces and is probably considered the world’s leading electronic platform for energy markets and soft commodity exchange. USDX® futures contracts trade electronically on the ICE electronic trading platform as well as an open outcry platform on ICE’s Future U.S.’s New York and Dublin trading floors.

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Honda of Mizuho Sees Dollar `Bounce’ in Next Six Months

March 28, 2008 – 4:25 am

Hidetoshi Honda, a currency strategist at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., talks with Bloomberg’s John Dawson and Naga Munchetty in London about the outlook for the U.S. dollar, Japan’s economy and his strategy for the rand and yen. The dollar has fallen 7.6 percent against the euro this year, heading for its sixth straight quarterly loss and the biggest since 2004 as the Fed slashed interest rates by 3 percentage points since September to 2.25 percent. (Source: Bloomberg)

Tags: Bloomberg, dollar, Hidetoshi Honda, John Dawson, Mizuho Corporate, Naga Munchetty

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