NEW YORK (TheStreet) — 2009 was a golden year with bullion making a $340 upwards move (+35%) from Jan. 3 to the Dec. 26 highs.
At the same time the Usd was the one of weakest currencies in global trade. However, since Dec. 3 and the last U.S. non-farm payroll report, gold has declined by more than $150 (-12%) in just three weeks, as shown on this chart.
The three-week gold move has fed off very strong down-side momentum, and a freshly broken trend-line suggests that this may be a near-term, first leg, of something larger to follow. The Elliott Wave team at the TheLFB.com will monitor gold weakness and Usd strength in the first part of 2010.
One of the pairs that reflects the sentiment for Usd based moves is Usd/Chf, since it is linked to interest rate differential based trade and does tend to signal Usd momentum swings better than most currencies. On the long side of swissy, the trade team is watching for signals of a long move, possibly up towards the 1.100 zone, while gold may fall back towards $1000 per ounce.
Elliott wave view: Usd/Chf
Swissy reached new 2009 lows on Nov. 26, at a point that the market saw a Usd bear market reversal. Overall we are looking at two long-term wave count, and what is important to note is that both of the wave counts signal for Usd strength within the next couple of months.
Wave count No.1: You will see a long-term bullish wave count following a Short blue wave B), that may already be completed somewhere above the 0.9634 support area. Traders may be looking for a higher impulse wave C) move. Impulse moves mean a five wave structure, which is bullish in our case.
At the same time the Usd was the one of weakest currencies in global trade. However, since Dec. 3 and the last U.S. non-farm payroll report, gold has declined by more than $150 (-12%) in just three weeks, as shown on this chart
The three-week gold move has fed off very strong down-side momentum, and a freshly broken trend-line suggests that this may be a near-term, first leg, of something larger to follow. The Elliott Wave team at the TheLFB.com will monitor gold weakness and Usd strength in the first part of 2010.
One of the pairs that reflects the sentiment for Usd based moves is Usd/Chf, since it is linked to interest rate differential based trade and does tend to signal Usd momentum swings better than most currencies. On the long side of swissy, the trade team is watching for signals of a long move, possibly up towards the 1.100 zone, while gold may fall back towards $1000 per ounce.
Elliott wave view: Usd/Chf
Swissy reached new 2009 lows on Nov. 26, at a point that the market saw a Usd bear market reversal. Overall we are looking at two long-term wave count, and what is important to note is that both of the wave counts signal for Usd strength within the next couple of months.
Wave count No.1: You will see a long-term bullish wave count following a Short blue wave B), that may already be completed somewhere above the 0.9634 support area. Traders may be looking for a higher impulse wave C) move. Impulse moves mean a five wave structure, which is bullish in our case.
Usd/Chf Weekly Elliott Wave View
Wave count No.2: The second wave count is long-term bearish, since we came out with a completed black wave B leg around the 1.2400 top. We counted a move up from the wave A lows to the wave B highs as a double zig-zag pattern, separated by a wave (X). After that, the market made a very sharp decline in a blue wave 1) followed by a sharp reversal in blue wave 2), before prices fell into a down-trend channel with a five wave move.
If this wave count is correct, the market should make three waves of retracement into a Long wave II pull-back over the coming weeks and months, since we can count five completed waves down in our red wave I. Elliott wave traders will always look for a three waves of a reversal once a five wave pattern is complete.
Usd/Chf weekly Elliott Wave view
Above are two of three charts posted on this currency to members each day, that make up 30 charts in total that cover six major currency pairs, equity futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, January 7th, 2010 at 10:29 am and is filed under Forex Education, Trading & Investing, World News.
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