Yellow Pages de forex

Les dommages du marché boursier ont été déjà faits. Et si vous êtes l'une de ces gens près ou déjà dans la retraite, vous savez déjà que vous allez devoir travailler plus long, économiser plus ou dépenser moins.

Mais que devriez-vous vous faire en ce moment avec de l'argent être parti ? Au cas où vous patauger de nouveau dans le marché boursier, si vous sautiez en parachute quand le marché plongeait ? Ou si vous observiez votre baisse d'investissements et puis récupérez en derniers mois, devriez-vous juste se tenir dessus ? Que se produit si le marché ne récupère pas entièrement pendant longtemps ? (Qui s'est produit au Japon dans les années 90.)

Cette diminution économique a été assez raide et assez effrayante pour miner l'idée que le marché boursier, avec le temps, livrera toujours. Ainsi beaucoup d'investisseurs ont retraité à une position plus conservatrice.

La sagesse de ce mouvement est discutable. L'industrie d'investissement avertit que devenir trop défensif est coûteux à la longue. Son argument va n'importe quoi de pareil : Les gens vivent plus longtemps, la retraite peut durer 25 ou 30 ans et stocks sont censés vous protéger contre les ravages de l'inflation. Et puisque les stocks tendent à dépasser la plupart des périodes d'excédent d'investissements longues, l'industrie indique, votre épargne suffira bien à la fin.

Mais quelques personnes ne sont plus confortables avec cette logique. Il y a même une nouvelle étude qui conteste tenant l'excédent de stocks que de longues périodes peut être riskier qu'a précédemment pensé. Robert F. Stambaugh, un professeur de finances à l'école de Wharton à l'université de la Pennsylvanie et un co-auteur du rapport, ont indiqué que la plupart de recherche d'investissement a seulement expliqué le risque de variations du marché à court terme autour du gain moyen du marché boursier avec le temps. Il pas facteur dans le fait dit-il que la moyenne elle-même est sujette au changement.

Ainsi que les retraités et les pré-retraités devraient-ils faire de toute la ceci ?

“If another decline in the market is going to bankrupt you or put you out of business or destroy your retirement account, you should not go back into the stock market,” said John C. Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and viewed by many as the father of index investing. “It’s not complicated. The stock market can go up and down a lot and nobody really knows how much and when.”

What’s worked for Mr. Bogle may not work for you, but his method isn’t a bad place to start. “I have this threadbare rule that has worked very well for me,” he said in an interview this week. “Your bond position should equal your age.” Mr. Bogle, by the way, is 80 years old.

That’s a rather conservative recommendation, by many financial planners’ standards. In fact, Vanguard itself offers products that are more aggressive. Its target-date funds — whose investment mix grows more conservative as retirement nears — recommend that people retiring in 2010 (generally, people who are 65) should split their savings evenly between stock and bonds.

Charles Schwab, by contrast, has recently reduced the risk for its target-date funds. The company’s 2010 fund will allocate about 40 percent to stock funds next year, down from 50 percent in the past. “It’s a reflection that our clients’ appetite for risk has changed,” said Peter Crawford, a senior vice president at Charles Schwab Investment Management.

But you shouldn’t simply view your investments through the lens of how much you allocate to different investments (though you will need to come up with a plan). Instead, you should work your way backward. First, consider how much you will need to live when you’re retired and then figure out how you’ll pay for it.

Nearing Retirement

Ideally, you should have started to slowly shrink your stock position over your working career. But some financial planners have become more conservative about that. Before the market’s sharp downturn, Warren McIntyre, a financial planner in Troy, Mich., typically reduced his clients’ stock allocations by about 1 percent each year. Now, for older investors, he ratchets down their stocks by 2 percent each year once they reach 60. So a 65-year-old’s investments would be evenly split between stocks and bonds.

Other planners are taking even more defensive positions. “We are still very concerned about the status of the economic recovery and remain quite defensive as a result,” said Chip Addis, a financial planner in Wayne, Pa., who invests his clients’ portfolios in only 40 percent stocks.

Of course, there’s no one formula. Milo Benningfield, a fee-only planner in San Francisco, for instance, said he put a 61-year-old client in a portfolio with 60 percent in diversified stocks and alternatives (like real estate) and 40 percent in fixed-income (largely split among high-quality, short-term and intermediate-term bonds and cash). But this client can afford to take that risk — the client owns a house, rental property and has other holdings outside the portfolio.

The picture may change for pre-retirees who are 61 and close to meeting their savings goals, but can’t afford to lose any money. “We would ask ourselves to what degree, if any, can you afford equities,” Mr. Benningfield said. If inflation was their only concern, he might invest their money across a ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, which are backed by the government and keep pace with inflation.

But since retirees generally spend money on entertainment, health care and food — whose costs often exceed the general rate of inflation — he said he might invest 40 to 50 percent of their money in a portfolio of diversified stock funds (with at least 30 percent of that in international stock funds). But, he added, “Cash is risky, stocks and bonds are risky, life is risky.”

As to those investors who got out of stocks, Mr. Bogle said it might be time for some of them to get back in. “But I would take two years to do it,” he said. “Maybe average in over eight quarters, and do an eighth each quarter. I am just not in favor of doing things in a hurry or emotionally.”

And then? “Don’t touch it,” he said, emphatically. “One of my rules is don’t do something. Just stand there.”

Retirement

Several planners recommended different variations on a similar strategy for retirees. Set aside anywhere from eight to 15 years of your expected expenses — that includes food, utilities, housing, insurance — in bonds and cash. That way, you’ll never have to tap your stock holdings at the worst possible moment.

“Once you have that in place, you feel like you can weather any economic storm,” said Chip Simon, a financial planner in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

When you have figured out how much it costs to live each year, the next step is to see how much Social Security will cover. Whatever is left needs to be financed by your retirement portfolio. And the general rule of thumb is that you shouldn’t withdraw more than 4 percent of your portfolio (adjusted for inflation) each year.

There are different ways to invest your cash and bond holdings.

Rick Rodgers, a financial planner in Lancaster, Pa., invests 10 years of annual expenses in a bond ladder, with an equal amount coming due every six months. The ladder can include high-quality corporate bonds, Treasury notes, certificates of deposit or municipal bonds, depending on the retiree’s tax bracket. Mr. Simon takes a similar approach using a 15-year ladder of zero-coupon bonds. He says that investors can start building the ladder in their 50s, with the first rung coming due the year they retire.

Some advisers also say you can guarantee you’ll be able to cover your basic expenses by purchasing an immediate annuity from an insurance company. The annuity pays you a stream of income until you die. “You can buy four small ones from four insurers if you are worried about insolvency risk,” said Dallas L. Salisbury, president of the Employee Benefit Research Institute. “And if you are just worried about inflation protection, you can do TIPS.”

But you should probably delay any annuity purchases because payouts rise with interest rates. With current rates so low, and the possibility of inflation later, advisers said it’s best to wait a few years. You can also research inflation-adjusted annuities, but you’ll receive lower payouts in the beginning, Mr. Benningfield said, adding: “Less than most people can stomach.”

Provided by The New York Times

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009 at 4:25 pm and is filed under Personal Finance, Trading & Investing, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.