Het effect van de Griep van Varkens aan de Wereldeconomie In vergelijking met SARS
*Still te vroeg om de strengheid van te meten varkens griep
*As traumatisch aangezien SARS in termen van zijn menselijk effect waren, reageerden de markten nauwelijks aan het
*This de tijd, de wereldeconomie en de activamarkten zijn kwetsbaarder dan in 2003
*However, als dit in een paar maanden bedwingbaar schijnt te zijn zoals SARS (Streng Scherp AdemhalingsSyndroom) was, zullen de banken' balansen waarschijnlijk overheersen - marktgevoel, eerder dan de griep
Veel hangt van de strengheid van deze episode af - en dat is grote onbekend. Both economic and market impacts are almost impossible to quantify at this stage because of the many unknowns about the magnitude/severity of the swine flu. It depends on how easily the virus is spread human-to-human, the ability to detect the virus early, the effectiveness of border controls, and the mortality rate.
Hitting the global economy when it is at its most vulnerable. The virus has hit when the global economy is probably at its lowest levels of confidence and activity in this cycle. And while we have been expecting a modest global economic recovery sometime around Q409, this virus threatens to moderate, delay or – if it proves to be something significantly more severe than the SARS outbreak of 2003 – even derail the recovery. But to reiterate the point, much depends on whether this is something akin to SARS or much worse.
Pandemics compared – from the Spanish Flu to SARS. The Spanish Flu unfolded in two waves over 1918-1919, killing between 20-50 million people worldwide. Clearly, something of this magnitude would be devastating in human, economic and financial terms. The Asian Flu of 1957-1958 also unfolded in 2 waves, killing 1-2 million people world wide. The SARS outbreak was mercifully less severe, lasting only several months and claiming an estimated 774 lives.
Impact of SARS on the Asian economies. Tourism (visitor arrivals) and retail spending growth dipped sharply into negative for 1-2 quarters during the SARS outbreak. The IMF estimated that East and Southeast Asia lost almost USD 18bn in demand and business revenue due to SARS. Singapore and HK reported m/m declines in retail sales of -35% and -27.5% in February 2003, at the height of SARS panic. In HK, retail sales in y/y terms did not return to positive growth until August 2003. But in response, Asian governments put together relief packages to prevent and contain the problem as well as to help businesses with cashflow problems. Malaysia, for instance, spent an additional 2% of GDP in May 2003. Hong Kong and Taiwan spent roughly 1% and 0.5% respectively on similar aid packages.
But what about the equities market? Despite the widespread social and human impact of SARS, there was scarcely detectable impact on the stock market recovery in 2003. Asian ex-Japan equities (using the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan as a proxy) continued on their recovery off the lows of 2003. (Exhibit 1) To be sure, there are significant differences this time around – the global economy is clearly in a weaker state today than in 2003. The markets for risk assets are clearly more vulnerable today than in 2003. And then again, there is that crucial unknown – is this outbreak going to develop into a pandemic more severe than SARS in 2003?
Exhibit: MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan during SARS outbreak
- Effect of Swine Flu to the World Economy
