De dollar, Yen vindt Steun Pandemic Vrees op van Varkens `van de Griep de', Toevoegend aan Zorgen over de Tests van de Spanning van de Bank
De Yen is 's nachts het belangrijkste verhaal geweest aangezien de munt zijn veilig-toevluchtsoordstatus met potentiële pandemic „van de varkensgriep“ sturend voorzichtige investeerders naar sidelines opnieuw heeft gevestigd. Het feit dat de gezondheidszorgen in de Westelijke hemisfeer gebaseerd zijn heeft zorgen verhoogd aangezien het de V.S. kon negatief beïnvloeden. economie waar de meeste stimulus is bepaald en de verwachte bron van de groei geweest helpen stammen de huidige globale daling.
Economische docket toonde de twee thema's aan die momenteel overwegend in het economische gebied groeiende vertrouwen en de dalende prijzen zijn. The German Gfk consumer confidence reading held steady at 25 for a third month as it beat estimates for a decline to 23. The sentiment reading follows improvement in the PMI and IFO business gauges as confidence is starting to improve on the back of the ECB’s increasingly accommodative monetary policy and the individual stimulus packages by the various countries. Meanwhile, the German import price index to -7.1% from -6.4% in February as declining oil costs continues to drive down inflationary pressures. Deflation concerns will remain as longs as price continue to fall and the economy lacks clear signs of growth returning. Therefore, expectations are t hath e central bank will lower their benchmark rate by another 25 bos and initiate non-standard measures over their next two policy meeting, which could become a weighing factor for the single currency. The 50-Day SMA is the next possible support level at 1.3059, but the April 20th below of 1.2889 will be the key level to watch.
The pound has also continued to remain under pressure as it fell to an intraday low of 1.4514, but we are starting to see support from the 100-Day SMA which stands at 1.4521. The hopes of a recovery in the U.K. housing market were put on hold when Hometrack reported that home prices fell for a 19th month by 0.3% bringing the annualized reading to -10.1%. Additionally, the BBA loans for home purchases measurement declined to 26,097 from 28,024 in March. The BoE continues to purchase debt in hopes of loosening credit markets, but if those results don’t begin to start to show results we may see fears grow that more downside risks remain for the country’s economy which could start to weigh on sterling. The 50-Day SMA at 1.4421 remains a key level of support since mid-March, and a failure there could lead to a significant move lower for the pound.
The dollar traded higher throughout the majority of the overnight session, except against the yen as the unknown attached to the “swine flu” has fueled risk aversion. We have started to see the greenback give back some of its gains as the extra-ordinary factor may have limited impact on broader sentiment. However, concerns over growth and the bank stress test may keep traders cautious going forward. A light fundamental calendar will leave the dollar at the mercy of the broader themes today but the FOMC meeting and the first quarter GDP report will provide event risk latter in the week. The Dallas Fed manufacturing report is the only release scheduled to hit the wires and it is expected to show a mild improvement to -46.0% from -49.0%. Dow futures continue to trade down over 100 points, and a weak day on Wall St could continue to lend support for the dollar.
Written by John Rivera, Currency Analyst
