De Dollar van de V.S., de Japanse Verzameling van de Yen op vlucht-aan-Kwaliteit als Resultaten van de Vrees van Investeerders van de Tests van de Spanning van de Bank van de V.S.
- Euro Onderbrekingen onder 1.3000 - het Duitse Zew- Onderzoek kon Handel op Dinsdag beïnvloeden
- Het Britse Pond tuimelt tegen veilig-Toevluchtsoorden - het UK CPI mag terug in de Waaier van het Doel van de Inflatie van BOE vallen
- Canadese Dollar onder Druk voor Bank van het Besluit van het Tarief van Canada - Te verwachten wat
De Dollar van de V.S., de Japanse Verzameling van de Yen op vlucht-aan-Kwaliteit als Resultaten van de Vrees van Investeerders van de Tests van de Spanning van de Bank van de V.S.
De dollar van de V.S. en de Japanse Yen schommelden op Maandag aangezien de risicoafkeer de markten nogmaals schudde. Er is namelijk wezenlijke onzekerheid over de gezondheid van de financiële markten aangezien de overheid van de V.S. spanning-tests aangaande de 19 grootste financiële instellingen van de V.S. uitvoert, en de resultaten zullen niet aangekondigd worden tot 4 Mei. Tot toenmalig, woelig konden de investeerders blijven, vooral wanneer zij aankondigingen als vandaag vrijgegeven door Bank van Amerika zien, zoals zij zeiden netto last-van tarief tot 2.85 percenten van 1.25 percenten een vroeger jaar toenam, terwijl de krediet-kaart verliezen tot 8.62 percenten van 5.19 percenten stegen. Met de recessie van de V.S. en verlies van arbeidskrachten die versnellen treuzelen, kunnen de banken vinden dat zij voortdurend neer door het' onvermogen van de consument worden gewogen te betalen.
Ondertussen, vielen de V.S. die van de Raad van de Conferentie economische indicatorenindex leidt voor de maand van Maart 0.3 percenten aan a meer dan laag van vijf jaar van 98.1, merkend de zevende opeenvolgende maand die de index er niet in slaagde om te verbeteren. Een analyse van het rapport toont aan dat bijna elke component die tot dalingen wordt bijgedragen, met inbegrip van gemiddelde workweek, werkloze eisen, tempo van leveringen, de orden van niet-defensie investeringsgoederen, de bouw vergunningen, en voorraadprijzen. Dit gezegd zijnde, is dit rapport nog een bekledingsindicator maar voegt aan bewijsmateriaal toe dat Q1 het BBP voor de V.S. teleurstellend zou kunnen zijn. Dit gezegd zijnde, benadrukt de verzameling in de index DXY vandaag het feit dat de dollar van de V.S. zeer binnen uptrend blijft. Furthermore, based on the many bearish breaks we’ve seen in the Japanese yen crosses, including AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY, it looks like both of these low-yielding currencies could be in for further gains, especially if risk aversion remains a market-wide theme.
Euro Breaks Below 1.3000 - German ZEW Survey Could Impact Trade on Tuesday
The euro fell almost 1 percent against the greenback and over 2 percent versus the Japanese yen on Monday, but for what it’s worth, the currency escaped some of the more severe declines experienced by the commodity dollars, especially the higher-yielding Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. Looking to EUR/USD, the pair broke below key support at 1.2950, leaving the door open to further declines toward 1.2740 in the near-term. There wasn’t much in the way of economic data from the Euro-zone, but this will change on Tuesday as the release of the German ZEW survey of investor sentiment for the month of April is anticipated to reflect mixed sentiment on current conditions and the economic outlook. Indeed, the index of sentiment on the current situation is forecasted to fall to a more than 5-year low of -90.0 from -89.4 while the outlook is projected to rise into positive territory for the first time since July 2007. This report can be market-moving for the euro on a very short-term basis upon release at 5:00 ET, with disappointing results likely to weigh on the currency. On the other hand, better-than-expected data could provide a bit of a boost for the euro.
British Pound Tumbles Against Safe-Havens - UK CPI May Fall Back Into BOE’s Inflation Target Range
Like the euro, the British pound fell hard against the Japanese yen (-3.09 percent) and US dollar (-1.77 percent), but held up well against the Australian dollar (+1.87 percent) and New Zealand dollar (+1.00 percent). Looking to EUR/GBP, the pair managed to bounce from the 50 percent fib of 0.7809-0.9805 at 0.8807 while GBP/USD broke below trendline support at 1.4675 and ended the day just above the 38.2 percent fib of 1.3655-1.5070 at 1.4530.
Where EUR/GBP and GBP/USD go on Tuesday may hinge upon the release of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March, which is expected to rise 0.2 percent, the second straight increase. However, the annual rate of growth, which is more closely watched by the Bank of England, is forecasted to fall back into the central bank’s inflation target range of 1 percent - 3 percent for the first time since March 2008 to 2.9 percent. If CPI falls more than forecasted, the British pound could pull back sharply as the markets will anticipate that the BOE will expand their quantitative easing efforts. On the other hand, if CPI holds strong, the currency could rally in response.
Commodity Dollar Plunge, Canadian Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of Bank of Canada Rate Decision - What to Expect
The Canadian dollar was hit hard on Monday, but the currency fared a bit better than the higher-yielding commodity dollars. In fact, the Australian dollar plummeted 5 percent against the Japanese yen and close to 4 percent versus the US dollar. Likewise, the New Zealand dollar plunged 4 percent against the yen and nearly 3 percent versus the greenback. With risk aversion back in play, the comm block could remain under pressure, especially against the safe-haven currencies. The Canadian dollar will face its own event risk on Tuesday at 9:00 ET as the Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged at 0.50 percent, according to a Bloomberg News poll of economists. As it stands, economic conditions continued to deteriorate throughout Q1, as Ivey PMI has held below 50 for the fifth straight month in March, signaling a contraction in business activity, while the unemployment rate climbed to a seven-year high of 8.0 percent. That said, the Canadian dollar’s reaction may hinge more upon the policy bias contained within the Bank’s concurrent press release. From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is currently testing former support (now resistance) at 1.2392/1.2400 and whether or not we see a break higher may depend on the Bank of Canada’s stance tomorrow. Looking to shorter-term hourly and 240-minute charts, RSI is now in overbought territory above 70, suggesting the pair may be due for a retracement lower in the near-term.
Ultimately a surprise rate cut, signs that the Bank of Canada holds a dovish outlook, or comments about quantitative easing could send USD/CAD above noted resistance for a test of the 61.8 percent fib of 1.3065-1.1981 at 1.2647. On the other hand, indications that the Bank will leave rates unchanged going forward could lead USD/CAD back down toward 1.2000. Traders should also keep the link between oil prices and the Canadian dollar in mind, as the correlation between the two is at its highest in at least 10 years.
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
