De Dollar van de V.S. mag als Hoogste Veilige Leider van het Toevluchtsoord vinden FX en van de Groei
Terwijl de dollar ongelooflijke vluchtigheid deze afgelopen week tentoonstelde; grotendeels, zou de verhoging van prijsactie niet met enige bepaalde richting uit de vloeibaarste munt van de wereld komen. In plaats daarvan, zouden de majoors verder prominente wigvormingen snijden die uiteindelijk breakouts en een besluit voor richting wat tijd spoedig zullen eisen - en dat de resolutie kan komen deze week.
Fundamentele Vooruitzichten voor de Dollar van de V.S.: Dit is het geval voor een meer dan decennium geweest aangezien Japan zijn lenende tarieven bij of dichtbij nul (afleiden anti-draagt rente) heeft gehouden en de economie heeft grote surplussen en besparingen gedreven. However, with global interest rates plunging towards zero and world-wide growth expected to hit its worst pace since WWII; investors are left to rethink where their capital is safest – and where it could also generate return when conditions do turn around. For the United States’ part, there little room for yields to deflate any further (they are also near zero). More importantly, though, they are far ahead of the curve on efforts to stabilize the domestic markets and economy. Constant liquidity injections, government guarantees, critical bailouts, proposals to draw out toxic debt that is clogging the credit system, the introduction of massive stimulus plans and endeavors to develop regulation for the long-term make for a strong foundation that few other economy’s can match. It is simply a matter of time before these cumulative stimulus catches up with the greenback.
The safe haven dynamic of the world’s most liquid currency (backed by the world’s most liquid ‘risk-free’ asset) has been a clear driver in all of the majors outside of the yen’s purview. However, as global policy makers attempt to put out the fires and interest rates near zero; we are slowly seeing a shift away from panic to growth. With global interest rates quickly approaching zero and more than three months of congestion under the market’s belt, fundamental speculation is focusing on gauging the world’s economies’ position on the recession curve. For those that are looking at relatively shallow and short contractions (and therefore expected to recover first), investors see the potential for return when risk has been fully exercised. The US is certainly a ways off from finding a true bottom in its own recession; but compared to Japan and the United Kingdom – its prospects look much better. Alternatively, when set against the Euro Zone, we are met with real debate. We will keep an eye on the round of second-tier data due this week, but the true shift in sentiment will likely be more closely linked to the efforts of the government to recharge the economy. - JK
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist
February 15th, 2009 at 5:07 am
Markets looking for signs of stability – Focus on new stimulus plan and bank rescue plan
Investor sentiment is caught between the signs of a deepening global recession and optimism over the Fed’s proactive rescue measures
February 15th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Your right John,
The USD this last week was very unpredictable. With the presidents stimulus
package of 800 billion,what is the dollar going to do? Can this be predicted or is it going to be (wysiwyg).
Several of the other pairs,to name one,gbp/chf stayed fairly consistent.
Something the USD has not been able to do
against the euro and more.
February 18th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
forex is the fastest way to generate money on the internet. But if you dont have proper skill to handle it, it can be your worst nightmare.
February 25th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
waiting for nfm this week