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Archives pour le novembre 2008

Nov.
26

Warren Buffett a déjà dit le monde ce qu'il fait sur ce marché épouvantable. Oracle d'Omaha a fièrement proclamé qu'il « est acheté les stocks américains » avec ses fonds personnels.

Mais il devrait également noter que Buffett argent avait mis ses investisseurs' sur la ligne aussi bien. Après s'être reposé sur des piles d'argent comptant pendant plusieurs années et la lamentation du manque d'occasions attrayantes, Buffett a fait plusieurs acquisitions principales par son conglomérat d'investissement, Berkshire Hathaway, aboutissant à une bourrasque des affaires en retard de septembre et de tôt-Octobre.

Dans juste une envergure de deux semaines, Buffett a pris l'énergie de constellation pour le prix d'occasion relatif de $4.7 milliards. Il a acheté $5 milliards en stock préféré de Goldman Sachs, recevant un gros rendement de 10%. Et il a acheté $3 milliards en actions privilégiées de GE, rapportant également 10%.

Ceci ne signifie pas que Buffett indique sortent et achètent Goldman ou actions de GE (GE). En fait, il y a d'abondance des raisons pour lesquelles vous ne devriez pas essayer de suivre son exemple, pas moins dont est le fait que Berkshire obtient aux affaires que les individus ne peuvent pas simplement.

Mais ce n'est pas le point. L'occasion ici est de prendre de la sagesse de investissement valable du plus grand praticien vivant. Dans cet esprit, voici ce que je pense que vous pouvez apprendre des mouvements de Buffett :

Soyez avide quand d'autres sont craintifs

Il est le plus célèbre de tout le Buffett-isms : « Soyez craintif quand d'autres sont avides et avides quand d'autres sont craintifs. » Aujourd'hui il y a d'évidence suffisante que les gens sont effrayés, car les investisseurs de fonds avaient racheté des montants record d'argent de leurs portefeuilles d'actions.

À côté de contraste, Buffett met son argent pour fonctionner. L'équilibre d'argent comptant de Berkshire, par mon évaluation, est à son niveau plus bas dans la mémoire récente.

Maintenant, ceci ne signifie pas que le marché tournera autour du demain. But Buffett’s point is that this is not the time to flee U.S. stocks. In fact, now is a great time to be looking for shares of high-quality firms that have been beaten down to affordable levels.

For examples of attractively priced industry leaders, see the suggestions to the right.

Don’t Be Hobbled by Past Mistakes

Buffett’s investment in Goldman Sachs (GS) was surprising to many, given his frequent digs at Wall Street’s casino culture and a problematic investment he made in Salomon Brothers.

In 1987, Buffett bought a stake in Salomon to ward off a hostile takeover, but the firm nearly collapsed amid a bond bid-rigging scandal a few years later, and Buffett had to step in as interim chairman.

Although the investment eventually worked out - Salomon was bought by Travelers, which merged with Citicorp to form Citigroup (C) - it’s safe to say that it was a longer and harder road than he had anticipated.

Still, Buffett understood that investment banking, for all its recent woes, is an attractive business if managed properly. The group of top-tier firms is fairly small, and it would be hard for a new competitor to break into the business, which gives Goldman Sachs tremendous bargaining power over its customers.

There’s an important lesson in this for individual investors. Just because many financial stocks in your portfolio have imploded recently, it doesn’t mean you should sell out of this sector entirely - or turn your back on these stocks for good.

Don’t Fall in Love With Your Stocks

Buffett is famous for having said that his favorite holding period is “forever.” But he will sell a stock he loves if conditions warrant. For example, late last year, as crude-oil prices were approaching $100 a barrel, Buffett jettisoned his stake in PetroChina (PTR).

Why? After multiplying more than fivefold since he bought it a few years earlier, PetroChina shares had reached fair value, so he sold. Since he cashed out, PetroChina shares have been cut in half.

Chalk this up to a lesson the Oracle learned in the late ’90s. As he admitted in 2003, “…I made a big mistake in not selling several of our larger holdings during the Great Bubble.”

Buffett similarly made what may be one of his best decisions when he sold Berkshire Hathaway’s long-held stake in Freddie Mac (FRE) in 2000. He’s never written about exactly why, but he noted presciently at his 2001 annual shareholder meeting that Freddie Mac’s “risk profile had changed.”

Keep Your Powder Dry

While the rest of the world gorged on cheap credit, Buffett maintained Berkshire’s conservative profile. This hindered his returns when times were good, but having lots of cash on hand enabled Buffett to snap up once-in-a-lifetime deals, like Constellation Energy (CEG).

Buffett, who owns several utilities, jumped on Constellation in September after its shares tumbled from around $60 to his purchase price of $26.50 in a mere matter of days. The result: He nabbed a company that produces nearly $1 billion in earnings a year for less than $5 billion.

Now, you may not be in a position to keep $40 billion in the bank. But as Buffett showed, it’s smart to have some cash on hand for opportunistic purchases. What’s more, there’s nothing wrong with being disciplined enough to turn your back on stocks that you’re not 100% confident in. That’s sage advice.

Why He’s Warren Buffett — and You’re Not

If investing were as simple as mimicking Warren Buffett, then all you’d have to do to retire rich would be to download a free copy of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder letter and shadow the Oracle’s moves.

Given that you’re reading this article instead of relaxing at your seaside villa, it’s clear copying Buffett is no easy task. So as you marvel at the Sage, keep the following in mind:

Warren Can Strike Deals You Can’t

Buffett’s reputation and Berkshire’s financial heft are enormous advantages that regular investors simply don’t share. Take his recent investment in Goldman Sachs (GS). It was made in preferred stock that was offered only to Berkshire and pays a 10% fixed yield.

That’s twice what Uncle Sam is initially earning on the preferred shares it got from Goldman in exchange for injecting capital into the bank. But chalk that up to the Buffett premium. Firms want the Oracle to invest in them for his seal of approval.

Berkshire’s purchase of Constellation Energy offers a great example. Constellation’s shares had fallen 75% from their highs because the market was worried about the financial health of the company’s energy-trading operations.

If you or I bought the stock at that level, we would have been making a bet that Constellation would pull through. But we would not have been able to affect the odds. However, Berkshire’s financial strength and Buffett’s name assured Constellation’s survival, making the investment more valuable as soon as Warren bought the company.

Warren Is Smarter Than You Are

Many casual observers assume that Buffett simply buys great companies and hangs on to them. Simple, right? But the real key to Buffett’s success is far more complicated.

Buffett has created enormous value for Berkshire by buying all kinds of securities, from common stock and preferred shares to currencies, distressed debt and options.

He has also made money through merger arbitrage and fixed-income arbitrage. These are all areas that only the most sophisticated investor should dabble in.

Why Mimic Warren When You Can Hire Him?

Your best bet for benefiting from Buffett’s wisdom is the most obvious: Buy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) stock.

It’s really an investment company. But unlike a fund, it doesn’t charge annual management fees. Buffett has deployed a lot of cash into attractive deals lately, which should add value for years to come.

Story from Yahoo! Finance

Nov
13

With the current world turmoil on equity, commodity, forex (foreign exchange) and structured instruments where most of the products that introduced to investors fail, Islamic Finance looks promising where these products are based on Islamic study and practices in most of the Muslim world.

There are many opportunities for Islamic Finance to lead the financial fraternity into a new growth era; said Prime Minister of Malaysia Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He said Islamic Banking and Finance needed to quickly integrate itself with the international financial system and prove itself a viable alternative to conventional financial system practiced in most part of the world.

“The recent global financial meltdown illustrated a desperate need for system based on the principle of profit-sharing, where both parties in the contract are subjected to potential losses and returns.” Abdullah said.

He said by transforming into an essential element of global finance, Islamic Finance would surely end its perceived position as a niche or boutique financial service.

News compiled by MoneyForex Financial Ltd.

Nov
10

WASHINGTON – President-elect Obama plans to use his executive powers to make an immediate impact when he takes office, perhaps reversing Bush administration policies on stem cell research and domestic drilling for oil and natural gas.

John Podesta, Obama’s transition chief, said Sunday Obama is reviewing President Bush’s executive orders on those issues and others as he works to undo policies enacted during eight years of Republican rule. He said the president can use such orders to move quickly on his own.

“There’s a lot that the president can do using his executive authority without waiting for congressional action, and I think we’ll see the president do that,” Podesta said. “I think that he feels like he has a real mandate for change. We need to get off the course that the Bush administration has set.”

Podesta also said Obama is working to build a diverse Cabinet. That includes reaching out to Republicans and independents — part of the broad coalition that supported Obama during the race against Republican John McCain. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has been mentioned as a possible holdover.

“He’s not even a Republican,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said. “Why wouldn’t we want to keep him? He’s never been a registered Republican.”

Obama was elected on a promise of change, but the nature of the job makes it difficult for presidents to do much that has an immediate impact on the lives of average people. Congress plans to take up a second economic aid plan before year’s end — an effort Obama supports. But it could be months or longer before taxpayers see the effect.

Nov
04

November 4, 2008 - 2:38PM
UPDATE The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut its key interest rate more than expected as it attempts to prevent Australia’s economy stalling.

The central bank lopped three-quarters of a percentage point - or 75 basis points - off its cash rate, reducing it to 5.25%, the lowest level since December 2003.

”The fact the RBA continues to delivery outsized interest rate cuts suggests the RBA is extremely worried about the growing risks of recession,” said Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist Rory Robertson.

“The measure of how worried the RBA is about the economy is the fact that it’s unwound two-thirds of six years of monetary tightening in three months.”

The cuts came after today’s monthly board meeting by the RBA, and marks three months in a row of reductions. Fifteen of 16 economists predicted the RBA would opt for a 50 basis-points cut, and one tipped half that, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Nov
03

The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision will set the stage this week as Governor Glenn Stevens is anticipated to lower the benchmark interest rate by 50bp to 5.50% ahead of the ECB and BoE policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank is expected to ease policy for the third consecutive meeting as fears of a global recession continues to pose a threat to the $1T economy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100bp for the first time since 1992 as fears of a global meltdown intensified. The RBA minutes showed that the central bank slashed borrowing costs for the second consecutive meeting to lower the interest rate to 6.00%, stating that the unexpected move was ‘appropriate’ in order to stave off further downturns in the $1T economy. Meanwhile, Governor Glenn Stevens said that the risk of a ‘global catastrophe’ has died down as a result of the extraordinary efforts taken on by policy makers worldwide, but has raised speculation that the RBA will continue to ease policy further as the major economies around the world slip into a recession.