Forex Gele Pagina's

De dollar breidt reactie uit

door KBC Het Bureau van het Marktonderzoek

Bank KBC

Voor Donderdag, EUR/USD breidde zijn lagere correctie uit. Dit werd meestal technisch gedreven. De (omgekeerde) correctie in de loop van de dag tussen DE dollar en olieprijzen was veel minder duidelijk dan op Woensdag, zelfs als het vaak als verklaring voor de beweging wordt vermeld. Zowel hadden de Europese gegevens (M3, Engelse van de bedrijfs EG vertrouwensindicatoren, onder anderen) en de V.S.- gegevens (Eisen en de revisie van het BBP) een beperkt effect bij de handel. Opzij voor technische overwegingen (EUR/USD die onder de 1.56 neckline dubbele bodem wordt gelaten vallen) wij veronderstellen ook dat de markten de verandering in het Europese renteklimaat zoals binnen meestal geprijst overweegt. De investeerders neigen nu blijkbaar om meer aandacht aan de recente waarschuwingen van Gevoed te geven dat de rentevoeten zouden kunnen worden opgeheven eerder spoedig om inflatoire druk te bevatten. Wat ook de reden is, sloot EUR/USD de dag opnieuw lager (fro de derde dag in een rij) bij 1.5530 in vergelijking met 1.5639 op Woensdag.

Vandaag, de Europese kalender bevat EMU - CPI en werkloosheidsgegevens. In de V.S. zullen het vertrouwen van Michigan en Chicago PMI worden gepubliceerd. Er zijn ook toespraken van de haviken Weber van ECB en Grimmig op de agenda.

Het Europese inflatiecijfer zal een belangrijke krantekop voor de markten zijn, vooral aangezien het risico voor het rapport uit gekomen boven de consensus (3.5%) is. Nochtans, in de loop van de vorige twee weken, hebben wij de indruk dat de hoge Europese inflatie en de behoefte aan ECB om een restrictief monetair beleid te handhaven minder van een bestuurder voor Euro handel zijn geworden. Dit is ook het geval voor (hawkish) ECB- verklaringen. De V.S.- gegevens en zelfs nog meer olie neigen om invloed te bereiken. Betreffende de V.S.- gegevens, zouden Chicago PMI en het Definitieve van Michigan vertrouwen van de consument op zeer lage niveaus moeten stabiliseren.

Deze week liep de reactie EUR/USD duidelijk uit stoom en het onvermogen om de 1.5815 waaierbovenkant te ontruimen op korte termijn bracht winst-neemt in dit paar teweeg. De correctie in olieprijzen was ook een goede verontschuldiging in dichte dollar korte posities. On top of that, one might assume that the (interest rate) markets already price in a lot of euro supportive news as they point to a decent chance of an ECB rate hike towards the end of the year, while hawkish Fed comments caused markets pondering the chances of an early Fed rate hike.

In a medium term perspective, we have a neutral bias on EUR/USD. We expect the pair to continue trading in the 1.5285/1.6020 range as long as visibility on the economic picture in the US and Europe remains low. Short-term, the intermediate resistance at 1.5815/20 (reaction high) proved a hard nut to crack. Over the previous sessions, we advocated a sell-on-up ticks strategy in a day-to-day approach. We hold on to that bias. Yesterday?s correction below the 1.5600 neckline opened de way for return action to the lower part of the medium term trading range. This morning, lower oil prices (despite poor US inventories yesterday) also suggest that oil might continue to be a factor of help for the dollar. Of course, with oil you never know!

Yesterday, also USD/JPY extended the rebound that started earlier this week and the drivers were the same as for other USD cross rates. Stocks performed reasonable well (even if not euphoric), oil was still downward oriented (despite some intraday gyrations) and the US data contained no obviously dollar negative information. In the current environment, this mix is apparently enough for the dollar to make progress. The pair even briefly moved above the key 105.69 level, but the gains could not be sustained. USD/JPY closed the session at 105.49 (compared to 104.69 on Wednesday).

This morning, the Japanese inflation data came out mixed with the timelier Tokyo CPI slightly higher than expected, but the national April data slightly lower than expected. The Japanese unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 4.0%, suggesting that the global slowdown might filter through further into the Japanese economy. As usual this had only limited immediate impact on the yen.

After a rebound from mid March to early May, USD/JPY settled in a narrow trading range throughout the month of May. A first attempt to break above the range top in the 105.69 proved very difficult. However, on the downside the test of the 102.55 neckline was also rejected last week and indicated that the downside in this pair remains rather well protected. Over the previous days we had a buy on dips approach looking for a retest of the short-term range top at 105.69. This level was tested yesterday, but again no clear break occurred yet. As indicated yesterday, for a sustained break of this level probably some external help from oil or stocks (or both) is needed. However, we still have the feeling that the underlying sentiment gradually grows a bit more dollar positive and in this respect we think that there is a chance for the pair to make a second attempt to break above the key 105.69/105.95 area in the days to come. Of course, the key US data next week will have an important say whether or not such a break will be sustainable longer term.

Yesterday, also EUR/GBP extended the correction that started earlier this week. As was the case for EUR/USD, technical considerations played a role as the pair dropped below the 0.7920 support area two days ago. This fuelled the market feeling that also the upside momentum is this pair is blocked for now, triggering additional selling/profit taking in this pair. In the morning, the sterling already ignored very poor Nationwide house prices. Later in the session, the CBI distributive trades report came out better/less negative than expected and this reinforced the sterling rebound. EUR/GBP closed the day at 0.7852 compared to 0.7940 on Wednesday.

Today, the UK calendar is empty. Overnight, the GFK consumer sentiment came out very weak, but once again this was ignored by the sterling.

Since mid April, EUR/GBP develops a consolidation pattern after the steep sterling losses of the previous months. We took profit on EUR/GBP latest rebound last week, as we doubted the overall short-term upside potential of the euro. We remain sterling skeptical longer term. However, short-term we have the impression that markets have grown somewhat less negative on the sterling and a EUR/USD correction also tends to filter through into EUR/GBP trading. The confirmed break below the 0.7920 area/short term range bottom now opens to way for the pair to revised to MT range bottom in the 0.7766/46 area. From there, the correction could become (much) more difficult, we think.