Le dollar prolonge le rebond
par le bureau de recherche de marché de KBC
Jeudi, EUR/USD a prolongé sa correction inférieure. Ceci la plupart du temps a été techniquement conduit. La correction (inverse) d'intra-jour entre de dollar et prix du pétrole était moins évidente lointain que mercredi, même si on lui mentionne souvent comme explication pour le mouvement. Les les deux les données européennes (des indicateurs de confiance d'affaires de l'EC de M3, d'en, entre d'autres) et les données des USA (des réclamations et révision de PIB) ont eu un impact limité sur le commerce. De côté pour les considérations techniques (EUR/USD laissé tomber au-dessous du double fond 1.56 d'encolure) nous supposons également que les marchés considère le changement du climat européen d'intérêt en tant que la plupart du temps po eu le prix indiqué. Les investisseurs tendent maintenant apparemment à donner plus d'attention aux avertissements récents du Fédéral que des taux d'intérêt d'intérêt pourraient être élevé plutôt bientôt afin de contenir des pressions inflationnistes. Celui qui la raison, EUR/USD ait clôturé le jour encore plus bas (fro le troisième jour dans une rangée) à 1.5530 comparés à 1.5639 mercredi.
Aujourd'hui, le calendrier européen contient l'EMU CPI et des données de chômage. Aux USA la confiance du Michigan et la Chicago PMI seront éditées. Il y a également des discours des fauconx de BCE Weber et rigide à l'ordre du jour.
Le chiffre européen d'inflation sera un titre important pour les marchés, particulièrement comme le risque est pour de rapport venu dehors au-dessus du consensus (3.5%). Cependant, au cours des deux semaines précédentes, nous avons l'impression que l'inflation européenne élevée et le besoin de la BCE de maintenir une politique monétaire restrictive est allée bien à moins de conducteur pour le commerce d'euro. C'est également le point de droit pour des déclarations (bellicistes) de BCE. Les données des USA et bien plus d'huile tendent à gagner l'influence. Concernant les données des USA, on s'attend à ce que la Chicago PMI et la confiance du consommateur finale du Michigan stabilisent aux niveaux très bas.
Cette semaine le rebond d'EUR/USD a évidemment manqué de vapeur et l'incapacité à l'espace libre le dessus à court terme de la gamme 1.5815 a déclenché le profit-taking dans cette paire. La correction dans des prix du pétrole était également une bonne excuse pour clôturer des positions vendeur du dollar. On top of that, one might assume that the (interest rate) markets already price in a lot of euro supportive news as they point to a decent chance of an ECB rate hike towards the end of the year, while hawkish Fed comments caused markets pondering the chances of an early Fed rate hike.
In a medium term perspective, we have a neutral bias on EUR/USD. We expect the pair to continue trading in the 1.5285/1.6020 range as long as visibility on the economic picture in the US and Europe remains low. Short-term, the intermediate resistance at 1.5815/20 (reaction high) proved a hard nut to crack. Over the previous sessions, we advocated a sell-on-up ticks strategy in a day-to-day approach. We hold on to that bias. Yesterday’s correction below the 1.5600 neckline opened de way for return action to the lower part of the medium term trading range. This morning, lower oil prices (despite poor US inventories yesterday) also suggest that oil might continue to be a factor of help for the dollar. Of course, with oil you never know!
Yesterday, also USD/JPY extended the rebound that started earlier this week and the drivers were the same as for other USD cross rates. Stocks performed reasonable well (even if not euphoric), oil was still downward oriented (despite some intraday gyrations) and the US data contained no obviously dollar negative information. In the current environment, this mix is apparently enough for the dollar to make progress. The pair even briefly moved above the key 105.69 level, but the gains could not be sustained. USD/JPY closed the session at 105.49 (compared to 104.69 on Wednesday).
This morning, the Japanese inflation data came out mixed with the timelier Tokyo CPI slightly higher than expected, but the national April data slightly lower than expected. The Japanese unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 4.0%, suggesting that the global slowdown might filter through further into the Japanese economy. As usual this had only limited immediate impact on the yen.
After a rebound from mid March to early May, USD/JPY settled in a narrow trading range throughout the month of May. A first attempt to break above the range top in the 105.69 proved very difficult. However, on the downside the test of the 102.55 neckline was also rejected last week and indicated that the downside in this pair remains rather well protected. Over the previous days we had a buy on dips approach looking for a retest of the short-term range top at 105.69. This level was tested yesterday, but again no clear break occurred yet. As indicated yesterday, for a sustained break of this level probably some external help from oil or stocks (or both) is needed. However, we still have the feeling that the underlying sentiment gradually grows a bit more dollar positive and in this respect we think that there is a chance for the pair to make a second attempt to break above the key 105.69/105.95 area in the days to come. Of course, the key US data next week will have an important say whether or not such a break will be sustainable longer term.
Yesterday, also EUR/GBP extended the correction that started earlier this week. As was the case for EUR/USD, technical considerations played a role as the pair dropped below the 0.7920 support area two days ago. This fuelled the market feeling that also the upside momentum is this pair is blocked for now, triggering additional selling/profit taking in this pair. In the morning, the sterling already ignored very poor Nationwide house prices. Later in the session, the CBI distributive trades report came out better/less negative than expected and this reinforced the sterling rebound. EUR/GBP closed the day at 0.7852 compared to 0.7940 on Wednesday.
Today, the UK calendar is empty. Overnight, the GFK consumer sentiment came out very weak, but once again this was ignored by the sterling.
Since mid April, EUR/GBP develops a consolidation pattern after the steep sterling losses of the previous months. We took profit on EUR/GBP latest rebound last week, as we doubted the overall short-term upside potential of the euro. We remain sterling skeptical longer term. However, short-term we have the impression that markets have grown somewhat less negative on the sterling and a EUR/USD correction also tends to filter through into EUR/GBP trading. The confirmed break below the 0.7920 area/short term range bottom now opens to way for the pair to revised to MT range bottom in the 0.7766/46 area. From there, the correction could become (much) more difficult, we think.
