[فورإكس] [يلّوو بجس]

5 يتسوّق حادثات مهمّة أكثر ل [فورإكس] هذا أسبوع

يكتب ب [ترّي] [بلكس], عملة محللة

توقّعت ال [بنك وف نغلند] أن يترك معدلات ثابتة في يوم الخميس في 5.00 نسبة مئويّة بعد يقطع ب [25ببس] أثناء اجتماعهم متأخّرة. The rate decision will come at 7:00 EDT and since the Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to leave rates unchanged, they are unlikely to issue a monetary policy statement which should leave the market?s reaction to the news very muted. Nevertheless, given the fact that the vote for the April rate cut included six in favor of the 25bp reduction, two votes for no change, and one vote for a 50bp cut, it?s clear that there is major disagreement amongst the Committee on what their next move should be. Inflation pressures in the UK have not been quite as strong as in the Euro-zone, though CPI is still above MPC?s comfort zone, and in the Bank?s Financial Stability Report they tried to put a positive spin on the credit crunch by saying it was ?needed after the credit boom and was bound to have costs.? However, the MPC also noted major risks from a plunge in commercial property values, which could lead to significant losses for UK banks on losses related to commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). This has stoked concerns that the UK is in for a US-style housing market collapse, or worse, an all-out recession. As a result, the risks are tilted very much to the downside for the British pound going forward.

4. Like the Bank of England, the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates steady at 4.00 percent for the eleventh consecutive meeting. The rate announcement will come at 7:45 EDT, but the big show is at 8:30 EDT when ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will give his monthly press conference. Will he remain hawkish, or focus more on the instability in the markets? Estimates for Euro-zone CPI in April plunged to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent, though this is still well above the ECB?s 2 percent target as energy and food costs remain high. On the other hand, the ECB has stepped in to inject liquidity into the money markets, as credit conditions remain tight. There?s little doubt ?price stability? will be the foremost concern for Trichet, but if he suggests that price pressures will moderate in the near-term or that feeble financial market conditions are threatening economic growth, the euro could actually sell-off across the majors.

5. The only significant event risk on Friday will be from the release of the Canadian net employment change at 7:00 EDT. This release is essentially ?the other NFP? report, as the data tends to be highly market-moving for the Canadian dollar and rarely meets estimates. Lately, the net employment change has been lackluster, but a surprisingly strong figure will undoubtedly lead the USD/CAD pair to plunge sharply in the minutes after the news hits the wires. On the other hand, a disappointing net employment change could lead the pair to surge. However, follow-through during the rest of the day tends to be limited. Check in to see what other traders think about the USD/CAD pair and the Canadian data post-release in the DailyFX USD/CAD Forum.