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Will the FOMC, Q1 GDP Bring the Dollar Back to Losing Status?将联邦公开市场委员会，第一季度国内生产总值带来的美元回失去的地位？

Source: DailyFX.com资料来源： dailyfx.com
The US dollar staged a massive comeback last week as US economic data indicated that, while conditions remain dismal, they aren’t quite as bad as expected.美元上演了大规模的卷土重来，上周美国经济数据表示，虽然条件仍然暗淡，他们是不太预期那样糟。 First, the Richmond Fed index “only” fell to 0 from +6, versus expectations of a drop to -1, while existing home sales slipped 2.0 percent.首先，里奇蒙联储指数“只”下降至零，从六，银两预期的下降至-1 ，而现房销售数字下滑2.0 ％ 。 Next, the headline reading of the Commerce Department’s durable goods orders report contracted for the third consecutive month during March, due largely to declines in demand for transportation and defense goods.其次，标题读的商业部下属的美国耐久财订单报告，合同，为连续第三个月3月期间，主要原因是跌幅在运输需求以及国防商品。 However, the markets took their cue from the durable goods orders excluding transportation reading, as the index surged 1.5 percent and helped to keep the US dollar rally alive.不过，市场采取了他们的线索，从耐用品订单扣除运输读，由于指数上涨1.5 ％ ，并有助于保持美元反弹活着。

Looking ahead to this week, Tuesday’s economic data will likely highlight some of the reasons why traders are ramping up speculation that the country is in midst of a recession.展望未来这个星期，周二的经济数据可能会突出的部分原因是贸易商加大了投机活动，该国是在处于经济衰退。 Indeed, the S&P/Case-Schiller index of home prices is likely to fall sharply for the fourteenth consecutive month.事实上，标准普尔/案例席勒指数住房价格很可能大幅下降为第十四个月。 Later in the morning, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is forecasted to fall to a five year low of 62.0 from 64.5, which won’t be entirely surprising as rocketing food and energy prices combined with the collapse of the US housing sector and tightening credit conditions have sparked widespread pessimism throughout the financial markets.稍后，在今天上午，会议委员会的消费者信心指数是预测将降至5年低点62.0 ，从64.5 ，这将不是完全不足为奇，因为rocketing食品和能源价格结合的崩溃，美国房屋部门和收紧信贷条件已引起了广泛的悲观情绪在整个金融市场。 On Wednesday morning, highly anticipated Q1 GDP figures will be released, and a Bloomberg News poll of economists reflects consensus estimates for a 0.3 percent gain.对周三上午，备受期待的第一季的本地生产总值数字将被释放，和彭博新闻社调查的经济学家的共识，反映了估计为0.3 ％ 。 However, these could be rather optimistic expectations, as there is a good possibility that GDP could actually fall negative.不过，这些可能是较为乐观的预期，有一个良好的国内生产总值的可能性，其实可以属于否定的。

Nevertheless, the market’s response may be muted as the FOMC rate decision will come at 14:15 EST and the Bank is forecasted to cut the fed funds rate by 25bps to 2.00 percent.不过，市场的反应可能是静音，作为联邦公开市场委员会的利率决定将在14时15分EST和该银行的预测，削减联邦基金利率由25bps至2.00 ％ 。 However, the vote for the March reduction in the fed funds rate had two dissenters, both of whom voted in favor of “less aggressive” policy given upside inflation risks, and futures are now only pricing in a 75 percent chance of a 25bp rate cut and a 25 percent chance of no change in policy.然而，投票给三月减少，联邦基金利率有两个持不同政见者，他们两人都投了赞成票“少侵略性”的政策，鉴于通胀上扬的风险，及期货事务监察现在只定价在75 ％的机会，一25bp降息和25 ％的机会的政策并无改变。 The odds are certainly in favor of more accommodative policy, but if the concurrent policy statement suggests that the FOMC may not cut rates again at their next meeting, the US dollar could actually rally.赔率当然是在有利于更多的宽松政策，但如果并行的政策声明显示，联邦公开市场委员会可能不会降息，再次在其下次会议上，美元实际上可能反弹。 The latter part of the week will see both ISM Manufacturing and Non-farm Payrolls, though the employment data will likely be the bigger market-mover.后者的一部分，本周将看到这两个ISM制造业指数和非农支薪人数，虽然就业数据可能会成为更大的市场先行者。 NFPs are expected to fall negative for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that consumer spending will continue to deteriorate as record high energy and food prices sap disposable income.国家联络点，预期下降的负面连续第4个月，显示消费者支出将继续恶化，因为创纪录的能源和食品价格SAP的可支配收入。 – TB -结核病