英国国内生产总值将提供交易活动的风险？

Will UK GDP Provide Tradeable Event Risk?英国国内生产总值将提供交易活动的风险？

April 24, 2008 – 11:34 pm 2008年4月24日-下午1 1时3 4分

Thursday, 24 April 2008 13:24:40 GMT周四， 2008年4月24日13时24分40秒格林尼

Written by John Rivera, Currency Analyst书面约翰里韦拉，外汇分析师

Trading the News: 交易的消息： UK 英国 Gross Domestic Product 国内生产总值

What’s Expected 什么的预期

Time of release: 04/25/ 2008 08:30 GMT, 04:30 EST发布时间： 4月25日/ 2008年格林尼治8时30分， 4时30分预测

Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD小学对影响：英镑/美元

Expected: 2.6% 预计： 2.6 ％

Previous: 2.8% 前： 2.8 ％

How To Trade This Event Risk 如何贸易这一事件的风险

The GBP/USD has remained in a trading range between 1.9600 to 2.000 for nearly a month.该英镑/美元一直维持在一个交易区间1.9600至2.000近一个月。 The upcoming first quarter growth numbers may provide the impetus to break it free and put it onto its next trend phase.即将举行的第一季度的增长数字可能提供动力，打破它的自由和把它到其未来趋势的阶段。 The economic report is expected to show growth slowed for a consecutive quarter to 0.4%, bringing the annualized rate to 2.6%, and remaining below its recent growth trend average of 3%.经济报告料将显示增长放缓，为一季度为0.4 ％，使折合成年率为2.6 ％，其余低于其最近的增长趋势，平均为3 ％。 The housing slump brought on by the recent credit crisis has started to weigh on consumer confidence leading to retail sales declining for the first time in three months.房屋不景气所带来的，由最近的信用危机已开始衡量消费者信心，导致零售销售下降为第一次在三个月内完成。 The BoE in an attempt to jump start the housing market recently infused 50 billion in liquidity into the market., when it traded treasuries for mortgage back securities.教委会在企图跳转开始的房屋市场最近注入了500.0亿，流动资金投入市场。时，买卖国库券抵押贷款证券回。 The move brought more fear than relief as speculation grew that there was more fallout ahead from the credit crunch.此举带来了更多的恐惧比救济作为投机活动增加，有更多的尘提前从信贷紧缩。 Inflation concerns on the back of record oil prices have provided support for the Pound as the BoE has been adamant that price stability remains a focus of theirs.通膨忧虑，对后面的创纪录的油价提供了支持，为英镑作为教委会一直坚决认为，物价稳定仍是一个重点，他们的。 However, growth prospects have grown dimmer as indicated by the recent CBI manufacturing survey.不过，经济增长的前景越来越暗显示，最近中央调查制造业调查。 The forward looking indicator saw sharp declines in expectations for orders and output, with 13% more negative responses than positive.前瞻性的指标，看到大幅下跌，预期订单和输出，与13 ％，更消极的反应较正面。 Therefore, the inflation argument may lose its influence on the cable, leaving it exposed to more downward pressure.因此，通胀的说法可能会失去其影响，对电缆，让它暴露在更多的下调压力。

The negative expectations and recent softening fundamentals leaves the greatest chance for volatility with a rebound in growth.消极的期望和最近软化基本面叶片的最大机会的波动与反弹，在增长。 Although March’s retail sales declined, they managed to exceed expectations and were resilient throughout the first quarter.虽然3月的零售销售下降，他们设法超越期望，并力强，在整个第一季。 Therefore, the potential for an upside surprise exists, especially considering that unemployment has remained firm at 2.5%.因此，潜力一倒突击存在，特别是考虑到失业率仍是坚定的2.5 ％。 With strong GDP readings from both the quarterly and annual figures, we will look for a five minute green candle to confirm entry on a long, two lot GBPUSD position.与强大的本地生产总值的读数，无论从季报和年报的数字，我们会找一个五分钟的绿色蜡烛，以确认进入一个长期的，二很多英镑/美元的立场。 The stop for both lots will be set either at the nearby swing low or at a reasonable, fixed distance.停止为双方地段将设置无论是在附近摆动低，或在一个合理的，固定的距离。 The target on the first half of the trade will equal the distance to the stop, while the second lot’s objective should be taken on discretion.目标对上半年的贸易将平等的距离停止，而第二幅土地的目标应采取的酌情权。 When the first lot takes profit, the stop on the second should be moved up to break even to conserve profit.当第一需要很多的利润，停在第二次应移到了突破，甚至以保护利润。

The most likely scenario, given the toll the housing slump, rising inflation and tight credit markets have exacted on the economy, is that growth slowed.最有可能的情况下，由于收费房屋不景气，通货膨胀率上升和信贷紧缩市场exacted对经济，是增长放缓。 If the GDP numbers cross the wires worse than expected, we will use the same criteria and strategy setup for a short as we would for the long, except in reverse.如果GDP数字交叉电线不如预期，我们将使用相同的准则和战略格局在短期内作为，我们会为长，除了在扭转。