The negative expectations and recent softening fundamentals leaves the greatest chance for volatility with a rebound in growth. Although March?s retail sales declined, they managed to exceed expectations and were resilient throughout the first quarter. Therefore, the potential for an upside surprise exists, especially considering that unemployment has remained firm? at 2.5%. With strong GDP readings from both the quarterly and annual figures, we will look for a five minute green candle to confirm entry on a long, two lot GBPUSD position. The stop for both lots will be set either at the nearby swing low or at a reasonable, fixed distance. The target on the first half of the trade will equal the distance to the stop, while the second lot?s objective should be taken on discretion. When the first lot takes profit, the stop on the second should be moved up to break even to conserve profit.

The most likely scenario, given the toll the housing slump, rising inflation and tight credit markets have exacted on the economy, is that growth slowed. If the GDP numbers cross the wires worse than expected, we will use the same criteria and strategy setup for a short as we would for the long, except in reverse.

taken from : http://www.dailyfx.com