Forex Yellow Pages外汇黄页

Is the US Headed for Recession, If So Where Should I Park My Dollars?是美国为首的，为经济衰退时，若有我应在哪里园我的美元吗？

Retail sales and producer prices both contracted in the month of December, leading many traders to wonder whether the US economy will fall into recession.零售销售和生产者价格都收缩在12月份，导致许多贸易商怀疑是否对美国经济会陷入衰退。 Spending on cars, electronics, furniture, gas station receipts, building materials, clothing and sporting goods all declined, reflecting a broad based slowdown in consumer demand.用于汽车，电子，家具，煤气站收据，建材，服装和体育用品均持续下跌，反映了一个基础广泛的放缓，消费需求。 According to Bloomberg News, this is the worst year for US retailers since 2002.据彭博新闻社，这是最坏的一年，美国零售商自2002年以来。 With the growth in the labor market already slowing, will the drop in consumer spending push the US economy into a recession and if so, what does this mean for the US dollar?随着劳动力市场已经放慢，将减少消费支出，推动美国经济陷入衰退的话，那么，这是什么意思，为美元？

Is the US Dollar Headed for More Losses? 是美元为首，为更多的损失？

Before discussing whether the US economy will fall into a recession or how much the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, it is important to talk about what is in store for the US dollar.然后才讨论是否对美国经济会陷入衰退或有多少美国联邦储备委员会将会调低利率，重要的是要谈什么，是在商店为美元。 Despite weak retail sales and producer prices, the dollar did not weaken across the board today.尽管疲弱的零售销售和生产者价格，美元汇率并没有削弱全国委员会今日。 In fact, it strengthened against the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars while selling off only against the Japanese Yen, British Pound and Canadian Dollars.事实上，它加强了对欧元，澳大利亚和新西兰美元，而出售小康不仅是对日元，英镑及加拿大元。 The main reason for this price action is because the weak data has caused a sharp rise in risk aversion.造成这种情况的主要原因价格行动，是因为疲软的经济数据已引起急剧上升，风险规避。 The Dow dropped as much as 275 points today, triggering massive carry trade liquidation.道琼工业指数下跌高达275点，今天，触发大规模的套利交易清算。 Over the past few years, the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and to some degree also the EUR/USD all were bought for carry trades.在过去的几年中，澳元/美元，新西兰元/美元并在一定程度上也是欧元/美元全部买下，为开展行业。 However the latest wave of weakness in the high yielders may actually provide good buying opportunities if the dollar continues to weaken.然而，最新一波的弱点，在高收益，实际上可能提供良好的买进机会，如果美元继续减弱。 As the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, stability should be restored in the financial markets, allowing the currencies of countries with strong fundamentals and inflation pressures to appreciate once again.正如美国联邦储备委员会降低利率，稳定的，要恢复到金融市场，让国家的货币与经济基础和通胀压力欣赏一遍。 One great example is the Australian dollar.一个很好的例子就是澳元。 A tight labor market, rising consumer demand, higher inflation pressures and $900 gold prices all point to medium term gains for the currency.劳动力市场紧缩，增加消费需求，较高的通胀压力，以及900元的黄金价格都指向中期累计涨幅为货币。 The only reason why it sold off today is because of carry trade liquidation.唯一的原因，被卖今天，是因为套利交易清算。 USD/JPY could also extend its fall because Japan will not able to raise interest rates if US growth slows materially.美元/日圆也可以扩展其跌势，因为日本将无法提高利率，如果美国经济增长放慢的物质。

Recession or No recession? 经济衰退或并没有出现经济衰退吗？

As for the US economy, although some economists will argue that the US economy is already in a recession, we do not agree.至于美国经济，尽管有些经济学家会说，美国经济已处于衰退期，我们不同意。 The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and in the last two quarters, GDP growth was strong.定义的经济衰退是连续两个季度的负增长，国内生产总值在过去两个季度的国内生产总值增长强劲。 Even if the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, that would be one quarter of negative growth, not two.即使经济合同在第四季度，这将是四分之一的负增长，而不是两个。 The first quarter has just started so it is too early to tell how the US economy will fare.第一季还刚刚起步，所以这是太早拿多少，美国经济将票价。 Also, retail sales were bad but spending has been very volatile.另外，零售业销售不好，但开支一直很不稳定。 Back in June and January of 2007, spending also contracted after a month of solid growth.早在6月和1月的2007年，这方面的开支也签约后一个月内取得强劲的增长。 Retail sales in November increased 1.0 percent which means that part of the decline in December was payback for the strong numbers.零售销售在11月上涨1.0 ％ ，这意味着这部分的下降， 12月为回馈的强烈号码。 The Federal Reserve has the power to determine whether the US economy falls into a recession.美国联邦储备委员会有权力，以决定是否对美国经济陷入衰退。 If they step up to the plate now they can still prevent the slowdown from worsening.如果他们加紧向板，现在他们仍然可以防止减速的进一步恶化。

50bp is a Band-aid 50bp是一个乐队的急救

The futures market has completely priced in a 50bp rate cut, but this may only be a band-aid for a growing problem.期货市场已经完全单价在50bp降息，但这种可能只会是一个带援助，为一个日益严重的问题。 Long term yields have remained stubbornly high and even though they will fall on a half point rate cut, the relief to borrowers may be minimal.长期收益率仍居高不下，即使他们将落在半分减息，纾缓借方可能微乎其微。 The Federal Reserve really needs to act aggressively to restore confidence in the financial markets and to stabilize the economy.美国联邦储备委员会是否真的需要采取积极恢复信心，在金融市场和经济稳定。 This means that either an interest rates cut now (yes, that would be an inter-meeting rate cut) or 75bp of easing at the end of the month.这意味着，要么是利率降低，现在（是的，那会是一个跨会议降息）或75bp的缓和，在本月底之前。 The goal is to send let the markets know that the Fed is not playing around and will do everything in their power to prevent a recession from happening.目的是为了发送，让市场知道，美联储是不是在玩左右，并会尽一切力量，以防止经济衰退的发生。 With producer prices falling, the Federal Reserve actually has the flexibility to make a larger move.与生产者价格下降，但美国联邦储备委员会实际上是可以有弹性，作出更大的举措。 Yesterday the Baltic Dry Index had its largest two day decline on record.昨天波罗的海干指数，其最大的为期两天的跌幅之最。 The index is usually used as a measure for global commodity demand and the fall suggests that demand is slowing, which should relieve some of the upside pressure on commodity prices.该指数通常用来作为衡量全球商品需求和秋天表明需求正在放缓，这应纾缓部分的上扬压力，商品价格上涨。

But will the Federal Reserve really cut by 75bp? 但美国联邦储备委员会是否真的减75bp ？

Probably not.也许还不够。

Since Bernanke’s term as Fed Chairman began in 2006, we have seen no surprises from the central bank.由于伯南克的任期作为美联储主席开始于2006年，我们没有看到任何惊喜，从中央银行的角色。 They have always done exactly what the market expected.他们一直在这样做，恰恰是市场预期。 Even though growth is clearly slowing, inflation risks are still to the upside.尽管增长明显放慢，通货膨胀风险仍在上升。 Bernanke is a hawk by nature which means that it will be difficult for him to take any measures that risks stoking inflation in an environment where the US dollar is already pushing prices pressures higher.伯南克是一个鹰派本质上这意味着，这将是他难以采取任何措施，即风险起炉灶，在通货膨胀环境下，美元已经推动价格压力较高。 Also, there has only been one 75bp rate hike in the past 15 years, the last time that interest rates were reduced by more than 50bp at a single meeting was in 1984, after former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had taken interest rates to a high of 20 percent to tame double digit inflation.此外，只有一75bp利率在过去15年中，是最后一次利息，降低利率，由超过50bp在一次会议是在1984年后，前美联储主席保罗沃尔克已采取利率高点百分之二十，以驯服两位数的通货膨胀。 By raising interest rates as aggressively as he did, Volcker managed to bring inflation down from its peak of 13.5 percent in 1981 to 3.2 percent by 1983.通过提高利率作为积极地像他那样，沃尔克设法使通货膨胀率下降，从高峰期的13.5 ％ ，在1981年的3.2 ％ ，由1983年。 We are not coming off double digit interest rates or even high single digit interest rates at the moment which means that a more aggressive move may be off the radar for Team Bernanke.我们不是来过两位数的利息甚至高单位数字利率目前这意味着以更加积极的举措可能关闭雷达队伯南克。

Expect the January 30 ^th Federal Reserve interest rate decision to be an interesting one.预计1月30 ^日美国联邦储备委员会的利率决定将成为一个有趣的。 The market is currently pricing in a 50 percent for a 75bp interest rate cut.市场目前定价在50 ％为75bp减息问题。 However as we have all seen, market expectations can change quickly.然而，由于我们大家都看到，市场预期可迅速改变。 Bernanke will be giving his congressional testimony on January 17 ^th while President Bush is slated to deliver his State of the Union address on January 28 ^th .贝南克将给予他的国会证词对1月17 ^日 ，而布什总统将在宣读他发表的国情咨文1月28 ^日 。 It will be difficult for the Fed Chairman not to shed more light on his plans for monetary policy.将难以为美联储主席不是更加清楚地对他的施政计划，为货币政策的作用。 As for the President, there is a decent chance that we could see new policy proposals like tax rebates aimed to stimulate the economy.至于总统，有一个像样的机会，我们可以看到有新的政策建议，如退税，目的是刺激经济。

In the meantime, once the US equity market stabilizes, broad based dollar weakness could resume.在此期间，一旦美国股票市场稳定的，基础广泛美元疲软可能恢复。 The highest probability trades will be to sell the dollar against the currencies of countries that are still looking to raise interest rates or to keep them unchanged.最高概率交易，将卖出美元对国家的货币表示仍在寻找工作，以提高利率或让他们不变。

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist写凯茜连战，首席策略

Source:资料来源： Dailyfx.com dailyfx.com