Worden de V.S. geleid voor Recessie, als zo waar zouden moeten ik Mijn Dollars parkeren?
15 januari, 2008 - 10:23 p.m.De detailhandel en de productieprijzen allebei gingen in de maand van December aan, dat vele handelaren ertoe brengt om zich af te vragen of de economie van de V.S. in recessie zal vallen. Het besteden aan auto's, elektronika, meubilair, de ontvangstbewijzen van de gaspost, bouwmaterialen, kleding en sportieve goederen allen daalde, wijzend op een gevarieerde vertraging in verbruikersvraag. Volgens Nieuws Bloomberg, is dit het slechtste jaar voor de detailhandelaars van de V.S. sinds 2002. Met de groei in de vertraagt arbeidsmarkt die reeds, zal de daling in besteden het van de consument de economie van de V.S. in een recessie en als zo, wat dit gemiddelde voor de dollar van de V.S. duwen?
Wordt de dollar van de V.S. geleid voor Meer Verliezen?
Alvorens te bespreken of de economie van de V.S. in een recessie zal vallen of hoeveel de Federale Reserve rentevoeten zal verminderen, het belangrijk om over wat is te spreken in opslag voor de dollar van de V.S. is. Ondanks zwakke detailhandel en productieprijzen, vandaag over de hele linie verzwakte de dollar niet. In feite, versterkte het tegen de Euro, Australische en dollars van Nieuw Zeeland terwijl verkoop slechts tegen de Japanse Yen, het Britse Pond en de Canadese Dollars. De belangrijkste reden voor deze prijsactie is omdat de zwakke gegevens een scherpe stijging van risicoafkeer hebben veroorzaakt. Dow gelaten vallen zo veel zoals 275 punten vandaag, massief teweegbrengen handelsliquidatie dragen. Tijdens de voorbije paar jaar, AUD/USD, NZD/USD en aan één of andere graad ook draagt EUR/USD iedereen werd gekocht voor handel. Nochtans kan de recentste golf van zwakheid in de hoge producenten goede het kopen mogelijkheden eigenlijk bieden als de dollar blijft verzwakken. Aangezien de Federale Reserve rentevoeten vermindert, zou de stabiliteit in de financiële markten moeten worden hersteld, die de munten van landen met sterke grondbeginselen en inflatiedruk toestaan te waarderen nogmaals. Één groot voorbeeld is de Australische dollar. Een strakke arbeidsmarkt, een toenemende verbruikersvraag, een hogere inflatiedruk en $900 gouden prijzen al punt aan lange termijn bereiken voor de munt. De enige reden waarom het vandaag is verkocht wegens draagt handelsliquidatie. USD/JPY kon zijn daling ook uitbreiden omdat Japan niet bekwaam zal om rentevoeten op te heffen als de groei van de V.S. materieel vertraagt.
Recessie of Geen recessie?
Zoals voor de economie van de V.S. akkoord, hoewel sommige economen zullen debatteren dat de economie van de V.S. reeds in een recessie is, gaan wij niet. The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and in the last two quarters, GDP growth was strong. Even if the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, that would be one quarter of negative growth, not two. The first quarter has just started so it is too early to tell how the US economy will fare. Also, retail sales were bad but spending has been very volatile. Back in June and January of 2007, spending also contracted after a month of solid growth. Retail sales in November increased 1.0 percent which means that part of the decline in December was payback for the strong numbers. The Federal Reserve has the power to determine whether the US economy falls into a recession. If they step up to the plate now they can still prevent the slowdown from worsening.
50bp is a Band-aid
The futures market has completely priced in a 50bp rate cut, but this may only be a band-aid for a growing problem. Long term yields have remained stubbornly high and even though they will fall on a half point rate cut, the relief to borrowers may be minimal. The Federal Reserve really needs to act aggressively to restore confidence in the financial markets and to stabilize the economy. This means that either an interest rates cut now (yes, that would be an inter-meeting rate cut) or 75bp of easing at the end of the month. The goal is to send let the markets know that the Fed is not playing around and will do everything in their power to prevent a recession from happening. With producer prices falling, the Federal Reserve actually has the flexibility to make a larger move. Yesterday the Baltic Dry Index had its largest two day decline on record. The index is usually used as a measure for global commodity demand and the fall suggests that demand is slowing, which should relieve some of the upside pressure on commodity prices.
But will the Federal Reserve really cut by 75bp?
Probably not.
Since Bernanke’s term as Fed Chairman began in 2006, we have seen no surprises from the central bank. They have always done exactly what the market expected. Even though growth is clearly slowing, inflation risks are still to the upside. Bernanke is a hawk by nature which means that it will be difficult for him to take any measures that risks stoking inflation in an environment where the US dollar is already pushing prices pressures higher. Also, there has only been one 75bp rate hike in the past 15 years, the last time that interest rates were reduced by more than 50bp at a single meeting was in 1984, after former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had taken interest rates to a high of 20 percent to tame double digit inflation. By raising interest rates as aggressively as he did, Volcker managed to bring inflation down from its peak of 13.5 percent in 1981 to 3.2 percent by 1983. We are not coming off double digit interest rates or even high single digit interest rates at the moment which means that a more aggressive move may be off the radar for Team Bernanke.
Expect the January 30th Federal Reserve interest rate decision to be an interesting one. The market is currently pricing in a 50 percent for a 75bp interest rate cut. However as we have all seen, market expectations can change quickly. Bernanke will be giving his congressional testimony on January 17th while President Bush is slated to deliver his State of the Union address on January 28th. It will be difficult for the Fed Chairman not to shed more light on his plans for monetary policy. As for the President, there is a decent chance that we could see new policy proposals like tax rebates aimed to stimulate the economy.
In the meantime, once the US equity market stabilizes, broad based dollar weakness could resume. The highest probability trades will be to sell the dollar against the currencies of countries that are still looking to raise interest rates or to keep them unchanged.
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Source: Dailyfx.com
